Super El Niño 2026: Strongest on Record

2026 El Niño event forecast to potentially become the strongest on record — peak >2.5°C above average, comparable to 1877-78 episode that killed tens of millions globally. NOAA Climate Prediction Center: 82% probability May-July onset, 96% probability sustained through 2026-27 winter, 2-in-3 strong-to-very-strong, 50-50 chance "Super El Niño" (>2°C anomaly). Cascading effects on heat, drought, wildfire risk, crop failures, monsoon disruption, and global food prices. Tracks both the meteorological event and its compounding effects on the polycrisis (Iran-war-driven oil shock, Ukraine-war-driven grain markets, Russia/Germany gas storage).