Critical Minerals Race: Rare Earths, Lithium & the New Resource Geopolitics
The global competition for rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals essential for defense systems, EV batteries, and advanced electronics. China's 60-99% dominance of processing creates a structural chokepoint that intersects with every military and economic campaign tracked.
Tracked Metrics
Signals
Timeline
The US and EU signed a memorandum of understanding on April 24 deepening cooperation on critical minerals across the entire value chain and lifecycle: exploration, extraction, processing, refining,…
China's official 2026 Nuclear Energy Development Blue Book reports installed operational nuclear capacity reached 125 GW, overtaking the United States at 97 GW. China has 60 commercial reactors in…
Helium prices in China's Henan province jumped from 76 yuan/m³ in early March to 170 yuan/m³ by mid-April (+120%). Qatar supplies ~33% of world demand and 54% of China's; Iranian strikes on…
Two significant Chinese moves on supply chain control: (1) Bloomberg reported (April 10) that China will ban sulfuric acid exports from May 2026 through at least year-end, citing domestic supply…
ASSESSMENT: The critical minerals race is the structural substrate beneath every military and economic campaign tracked. China processes 60-99% of rare earths (depending on element), 75%+ of lithium…
DEMAND OUTLOOK: Critical mineral demand is set to explode. Global rare earth demand expected to increase more than fivefold by 2030 (as of 2023 IEA projections). Lithium demand projected to grow…
Russia quietly secured military and economic foothold in Madagascar — the world's second-largest graphite producer. Bloomberg reports Putin deepening cooperation with Madagascar's military leadership…
Indonesia approved 2026 nickel mining quotas at 190-200M tons — roughly half the 2025 level of 370-380M tons, and far below market expectations of 260-270M tons. Since Indonesia provides 60%+ of…
Two critical minerals moves while global attention focused on Middle East: (1) Bloomberg reports Russia deepening cooperation with Madagascar's military leadership — world's second-largest graphite…
USA Rare Earth begins commercial delivery of rare earth magnets from its Stillwater, Oklahoma factory — first domestic rare earth magnet production in decades. First production line operational,…
ECB publishes model-based assessment of global implications of rare earth export controls. The report quantifies what a Chinese export restriction would mean for European industry. Separately, Norway…
China escalates resource weaponization. Beijing banned tungsten exports — tungsten makes up 75% of oil drilling heads, critical for military armor-piercing rounds and cutting tools. Rare earth prices…
Diplomatic sprint for critical mineral alliances. US-Japan unveil action plan to secure critical minerals supply chain, including discussion of "border-adjusted price floors" for select minerals.…
Pentagon has only two months of rare earth reserves remaining, SCMP and multiple sources report. Heavy rare earths (dysprosium, terbium) — supplied 100% by China — are irreplaceable in US…
China's escalating export controls create a ratchet effect. Timeline: July 2023 — China restricts gallium and germanium exports (essential for semiconductors, fiber optics). December 2023 — China…
Overland et al. propose GEMEC — an OPEC-style cartel framework for green energy mineral exporters — in Resources Policy (2024). Drawing parallels between oil geopolitics and critical mineral…
Molycorp bankruptcy — the death and rebirth of American rare earths. Mountain Pass, California — once responsible for ~50% of global rare earth production (mid-1960s to mid-1980s) — closed in 2002…
Wübbeke (Resources Policy, 2013) documents how Chinese government narratives drove the rare earth strategy. Two internal framing devices: (1) "pricing power loss" — state planners argued Chinese rare…
The 2010 rare earth crisis — first use of minerals as geopolitical weapon. After a maritime incident near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands between a Chinese fishing trawler and Japanese Coast Guard…
China's technology acquisition strategy in action. GM had commercialized neodymium magnets in 1986 by creating Magnequench in Indiana. In 1995, two Chinese companies acquired Magnequench. After…