Iran-US-Israel War 2026

active

71 entriessince 2026-02-25

US/Israel military campaign against Iran (Feb 2026–). AI-augmented targeting, Hormuz blockade, ceasefire dynamics, Pakistan mediation. First full-scale conflict with AI driving targeting, planning, and autonomous operations at scale.

aiwarirantargetingautonomous

Tracked Metrics

100x reduction in personnel (2000→20)

ai targeting efficiency

2026-03-07@axisofordinary (WSJ)

95% of war game scenarios

ai nuclear escalation rate

2026-03-10Kings College via @geopolitics_prime

26$B (first 16 days)

munitions cost 16days

2026-03-25RUSI

850missiles/month

tomahawk monthly burn rate

2026-04-01@SputnikInt

12.3Ktargets

centcom targets struck

2026-04-02@geohistorianArchive

17.6million bpd (Goldman Sachs)

hormuz throughput at risk

2026-04-02Goldman Sachs via @lobbyistka

425missiles (from 2,300 pre-war)

jassm er remaining

2026-04-05Bloomberg

99waves (Operation True Promise 4)

iran drone waves

2026-04-07@MyLordBebo

5deadlines since March 21

trump ultimatums

2026-04-07@herQles

14days

ceasefire duration

2026-04-07

8million bpd removed

hormuz supply disruption

2026-04-07@geo_grandmasters

27% of Iranian missiles reaching impact (vs ~5% early)

israeli missile impact rate war end

2026-04-14Haaretz / JINSA via JP Morgan

20000.0MUSD

cash for uranium deal usd

2026-04-17Axios

2.0Kkg (incl. 450kg at 60% enrichment)

iran heu stockpile total

2026-04-17Axios via @iran_news_ajancy

27vessels

vessels turned back blockade

2026-04-19CENTCOM via ISW

96.8USD/bbl

brent oil price post touska

2026-04-20Reuters/Headlines

110USD/bbl (1-month blockade)

citigroup hormuz 1mo oil forecast

2026-04-21Citigroup via @fineconomics

34tankers

iran linked tankers breaking blockade

2026-04-22Bloomberg (Vortexa)

103$/barrel

brent oil price

2026-04-23@diplomatic_talk

70tankers

centcom blocked tankers

2026-05-08CENTCOM via Newsmax

166.0Mbarrels

blocked oil capacity

2026-05-08CENTCOM via Newsmax

→

Signals

Timeline

2026-05-13

milestone

Iran's Hormuz toll regime gains operational compliance: Iraq, Pakistan, Qatar sign bilateral access deals

Per Reuters (cited @wmsitalia/@mylordbebo May 13) and PoliticsGR/Reuters May 10, Iran's Hormuz toll/transit regime (#1413, #1430) is gaining operational compliance: (1) Iraq secured safe passage for…

hormuztoll_regimeiraqpakistanqatarlng_tankeral_kharaitiyatcompliancewatchlist_38_resolvediswboundary_expansioncontrol_access

Reuters via @wmsitalia Reuters via @mylordbebo Reuters via @politicsgr ISW via @qvintaaetas Stimme der Vernunft WSJ via @ukraine_365news @tass_world Akraminia Izvestiya Akraminia France FM Barrot via Stimme der Vernunft ISW Special Report via @qvintaaetas

2026-05-12

escalation

Trump weighs resuming Iran war or Project Freedom Plus after Tehran rejects US deal

Per Axios (cited by @belshkvarka/@rgrunews May 12) and CNN (cited by @dntskmedia May 12), Trump held an emergency meeting with the national security team May 11 to weigh two options: (1) restart…

project_freedom_plustrump_emergency_meetingiran_rejectionaxiosrenewed_strikeswatchlist_resolvedsaudi_reversalports_struckwatchlist_46

Axios via @belshkvarka Axios via @rgrunews CNN via @dntskmedia Trump via @mirvmomente Trump via Izvestiya Trump via @taina_polit Trump via @tass_world WSJ via @taina_polit NBC News via Stimme der Vernunft Fox News via @rosich_russia

2026-05-08

data

CENTCOM May 8: 70+ tankers blocked at Iranian ports, 166M barrels worth $13B; 15K troops, 200 aircraft, 20 warships enforcing

CENTCOM announced May 8 (via Newsmax, Gulf News, Middle East Monitor, Voice of Emirates, ISW via @qvintaaetas) that US forces are currently preventing more than 70 tankers from entering or leaving…

hormuzblockadecentcomtankersfloating_storageoperation_economic_furyoil

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → world-war-trade

CENTCOM via Newsmax Gulf News Middle East Monitor ISW via @qvintaaetas

2026-05-07

assessment

US official to WaPo: Iran retains ~75% of mobile launchers and ~70% of pre-war missile stocks

A US official told the Washington Post (cited via Faytuks News, @wmsitalia May 7) that Iran retains approximately 75% of its pre-war mobile-launcher inventory and approximately 70% of pre-war missile…

missile_stocksmobile_launchersiraniswwapopost_ceasefire_assessment

WaPo via Faytuks News (@wmsitalia)ISW Special Report II via @qvintaaetas

2026-05-05

operations

"Project Freedom" Hormuz escort op launched then paused; Iran attacks UAE oil and Oman

Trump launched "Project Freedom" — a US naval operation escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to break Iran's blockade — and on May 5 announced (Truth Social via @MyLordBebo,…

project_freedomhormuzuae_attacksoman_attacksiswaxiosceasefire_pressurepausepakistan_requesthorizontal_escalation

Trump on Truth Social via @MyLordBebo ISW Mothership SG CNN (Israeli source) via @wmsitalia Hegseth via Stimme der Vernunft

2026-05-01

rejection

Trump rejects Iran's 14-point/3-phase proposal as "unacceptable"

Trump told Israeli broadcaster Kan News (May 1, via Al Jazeera, ISW Iran Update Special Report May 1, Stimme der Vernunft) that Iran's updated 14-point/3-phase framework (#1487) is "unacceptable" and…

trump_rejectioniran_proposalhormuznucleariswaxioskan_newsstalematerenewed_strikeswatchlist_resolved

Al Jazeera ISW Iran Update Special Report May 1 Axios Kan News (cited)Fars

2026-04-30

paper

Paper: hybrid time-series + cross-country model of Operation Epic Fury — Brent +55.3% in one month, 22:1 escalation-to-abatement velocity

Research Square preprint \"The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran-US War\" (DOI 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524) provides a hybrid event-driven time-series + cross-sectional analysis of Operation Epic…

literaturefoundationaloilhormuzstagflationpreprintoperation_epic_furymethodology

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → world-war-trade

Research Square

2026-04-28

assessment

WSJ: Iran storage capacity collapsing — oil being held in disused tanks and containers

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 27 (cited by ISW April 27) that the US blockade on Iranian ports has forced Iran to store oil in "disused oil tanks in poor condition" and in "containers" in…

storage_collapseblockade_pressureahvazasaluyehkhargnashawsjiswproduction_buffer

Wall Street Journal ISW @MyLordBebo (Hormuz idle ships)

2026-04-27

diplomacy

Araghchi meets Putin in St. Petersburg, emphasizing Russo-Iranian strategic relations

After Islamabad, Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi led an Iranian delegation to St. Petersburg on April 27 for a meeting with Vladimir Putin (ISW, WaPo, NBC News). Araghchi emphasized the importance of…

araghchiputinst_petersburgrussiastrategic_relationsaxisisw

ISW Washington Post

proposal

Iran's new proposal: open Hormuz and end war first, postpone nuclear talks indefinitely

Iran presented a new proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators on April 26-27 (Axios/Barak Ravid, NBC News, WaPo, Bloomberg, Foreign Policy, NYT). The framework: (1) US lifts naval blockade and…

round_2hormuzproposalnuclear_postponevahidiaraghchiaxiosrubiotrumpno_concessionswatchlist_resolved

Axios / Barak Ravid Washington Post NBC News Foreign Policy ISW @MyLordBebo (Trump quote)

2026-04-25

diplomacy

Witkoff and Kushner deployed to Islamabad for Iran talks; Vance held in reserve

Trump dispatched Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan on April 25 for Round 2 of talks with Iran (CNN, Axios/Barak Ravid, ТАСС via @tass_world). VP J.D. Vance was deliberately excluded from…

round_2islamabadapril_27witkoffkushnervancearaghchipakistan_mediation

Axios / Barak Ravid @tass_world @MyLordBebo

analysis

ISW: IRGC commander Vahidi prevails in regime infighting; Ghalibaf considering resignation from negotiating team

ISW-CTP assessment: IRGC Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle have repeatedly blocked attempts by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and other "pragmatist" officials…

vahidighalibafirgcintra_regimenegotiating_counciliswround_2

ISW (Institute for the Study of War)@qvintaaetas

2026-04-24

policy

Iran exempts Russia, China, Pakistan from Hormuz tolls — toll regime weaponized as alliance instrument

Iran's ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali confirmed April 24 that Russia, China, and Pakistan are exempt from the Hormuz toll regime. Russian-flagged vessels transit free along an IRGC-designated…

hormuztoll_exemptionrussiachinapakistanalliance_instrumentkatzcarrier_strike_grouphegsethround_2_april_27trump_deadline

→ russia-ukraine-war → russia-china-intel-2026 → global-economic-crisis-2026

@MyLordBebo @colonel_cassad Geohistorian (Hegseth, CNN)Geohistorian (Katz)Axios (via @ruble30)CNN (via Geohistorian)

2026-04-23

milestone

Hormuz toll regime goes live: Iran Central Bank receives first transit revenue, parliament codifies "politically licensed shipping"

Iran's Majlis vice-speaker Hamidreza Haji Babai announced on April 23 that the Central Bank received its first revenue from Strait-of-Hormuz transit tolls — the first time in modern history that a…

hormuztoll_regimecentral_bankmajlisrialpersian_gulfpermanentsea_minesirgc_facmonetizationwatchlist_resolved

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → world-war-trade → russia-china-intel-2026

Fars (via @rgrunews)@tass_world Izvestia @belshkvarka (parliament draft)@MyLordBebo Axios (via WMS Italia)

2026-04-22

incident

Round 2 Islamabad collapses: Iran walks, Vance cancels, IRGC seizes two ships, Brent tops $100

The second round of US-Iran talks scheduled for April 22 in Islamabad collapsed before it began. Tehran officially withdrew citing the unlifted naval blockade as proof of US bad faith; VP J.D. Vance…

round_2islamabadceasefire_extensionirgchormuzship_seizureepaminondasmsc_francescakhorramshahrblockade_breachvortexabrent_100

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → world-war-trade → us-munitions-crisis

Financial Times (via @sergeymiheev)Bloomberg (Vortexa data)@cybernebo Rybar (via @qvintaaetas)Axios (via @belshkvarka)

2026-04-21

diplomacy

Round 2 set for April 22 Islamabad; Trump clarifies ceasefire expires April 22 evening, "highly unlikely" to extend

CNN reports the second round of US-Iran talks will take place the morning of Wednesday April 22 in Islamabad. US delegation: VP JD Vance (lead), Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner — same team that ran the…

round_2islamabadapril_22ceasefire_expiryvanceghalibafcash_for_uraniumheu_stockpileirgc

CNN Al Jazeera @tass_world @qvintaaetas (ISW)

2026-04-19

incident

USS Spruance seizes Iranian-flagged Touska after six-hour standoff; Iran closes Hormuz again

USS Spruance (Arleigh Burke-class destroyer) fired warning rounds into the engine room of the 294m Iranian-flagged container ship Touska after a six-hour standoff in the Gulf of Oman, disabled its…

hormuzblockadetouskaseizurespruanceeconomic_furysodium_perchloratechina_supply_chainirislre_closure

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → world-war-trade → russia-china-intel-2026

CNN Al Jazeera Wikipedia Jerusalem Post @qvintaaetas (ISW)

2026-04-18

escalation

Pentagon extends blockade to international waters, names "shadow fleet" as targets

WSJ reports (April 18) the US military is preparing to seize Iran-linked ships in international waters well beyond the Gulf — extending the naval operation past the Middle East. JCS Chair Gen. Dan…

blockadeshadow_fleetinternational_waterscaineshandongchinaoil_sanctionseconomic_furyglobal_expansion

→ world-war-trade → global-economic-crisis-2026 → russia-china-intel-2026

WSJ via @stimme_der_vernunft @qvintaaetas (ISW)@pravdagerashchenko_en

escalation

Trump convenes Iran war cabinet as Hormuz crisis reopens 3 days before ceasefire expiry

Axios reports Trump convened a Situation Room meeting on April 18 specifically to discuss the renewed Hormuz crisis and stalled nuclear talks, with the ceasefire set to expire April 21 and no date…

hormuzceasefire_deadlineapril_21situation_roomaxioscash_for_uraniumtrumpvancewitkoff

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → russia-ukraine-war → nuclear-proliferation-cascade

Axios (Ravid)Axios @stimme_der_vernunft

2026-04-16

escalation

Pentagon institutionalizes Iran blockade under "Economic Fury" — <10% of US naval assets committed

Pentagon announced formal continuation and tightening of the Iran naval blockade under a program branded "Economic Fury," allocating under 10% of US naval forces and explicitly authorizing warning…

blockadehormuzpentagoneconomic_furydeterrence

→ global-economic-crisis-2026 → critical-minerals-race → us-munitions-crisis

@stimme_der_vernunft Rybar via @qvintaaetas Axios via @geohistorianarchive Bloomberg via @geohistorianarchive Ynet via @geohistorianarchive