Iran-US-Israel War 2026
US/Israel military campaign against Iran (Feb 2026–). AI-augmented targeting, Hormuz blockade, ceasefire dynamics, Pakistan mediation. First full-scale conflict with AI driving targeting, planning, and autonomous operations at scale.
Watching
Trump issued "final terms" to Iran May 29 (no nuke, open Hormuz toll-free, remove mines, US to unearth/destroy enriched material, no money exchanged) and is reviewing a draft accord; Iran is refusing HEU handover and excluding the nuclear question from the preliminary framework. Strikes resumed late May–June 3 (US on Qeshm/Bandar Abbas; Iran on US 5th Fleet HQ + Kuwait/Bahrain bases). Track: (1) Does a signed nuclear accord materialize or does the Pentagon launch the "Epic Fury"/"Project Freedom Plus" full restart? (2) Does Iran accept any IAEA inspection regime given the June 3 IAEA/Bloomberg assessment that weaponization risk is now HIGHER than pre-war? (3) Does Hormuz actually reopen toll-free, or does the >$1M/ship toll regime persist? (4) Does Israel get a green light to strike independently after the US prohibition (Channel 14, May 26)?
Tracked Metrics
Signals
Timeline
The ceasefire broke into open strike exchanges again in late May–early June while a draft nuclear deal stalled. Per Trump's Truth Social post (via @mylordbebo/@qvintaaetas May 29-30) and Axios (via…
Through mid-May the "no deal, no war" stalemate (cf. #1551, #1587) cycled through a near-miss escalation. Per NYT (via @banki_economy/@belshkvarka May 16), the US and Israel were conducting their…
Per Reuters (cited @wmsitalia/@mylordbebo May 13) and PoliticsGR/Reuters May 10, Iran's Hormuz toll/transit regime (#1413, #1430) is gaining operational compliance: (1) Iraq secured safe passage for…
Per Axios (cited by @belshkvarka/@rgrunews May 12) and CNN (cited by @dntskmedia May 12), Trump held an emergency meeting with the national security team May 11 to weigh two options: (1) restart…
CENTCOM announced May 8 (via Newsmax, Gulf News, Middle East Monitor, Voice of Emirates, ISW via @qvintaaetas) that US forces are currently preventing more than 70 tankers from entering or leaving…
A US official told the Washington Post (cited via Faytuks News, @wmsitalia May 7) that Iran retains approximately 75% of its pre-war mobile-launcher inventory and approximately 70% of pre-war missile…
Trump launched "Project Freedom" — a US naval operation escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to break Iran's blockade — and on May 5 announced (Truth Social via @MyLordBebo,…
Trump told Israeli broadcaster Kan News (May 1, via Al Jazeera, ISW Iran Update Special Report May 1, Stimme der Vernunft) that Iran's updated 14-point/3-phase framework (#1487) is "unacceptable" and…
Research Square preprint \"The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran-US War\" (DOI 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524) provides a hybrid event-driven time-series + cross-sectional analysis of Operation Epic…
The Wall Street Journal reported on April 27 (cited by ISW April 27) that the US blockade on Iranian ports has forced Iran to store oil in "disused oil tanks in poor condition" and in "containers" in…
After Islamabad, Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi led an Iranian delegation to St. Petersburg on April 27 for a meeting with Vladimir Putin (ISW, WaPo, NBC News). Araghchi emphasized the importance of…
Iran presented a new proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators on April 26-27 (Axios/Barak Ravid, NBC News, WaPo, Bloomberg, Foreign Policy, NYT). The framework: (1) US lifts naval blockade and…
Trump dispatched Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan on April 25 for Round 2 of talks with Iran (CNN, Axios/Barak Ravid, ТАСС via @tass_world). VP J.D. Vance was deliberately excluded from…
ISW-CTP assessment: IRGC Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle have repeatedly blocked attempts by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and other "pragmatist" officials…
Iran's ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali confirmed April 24 that Russia, China, and Pakistan are exempt from the Hormuz toll regime. Russian-flagged vessels transit free along an IRGC-designated…
Iran's Majlis vice-speaker Hamidreza Haji Babai announced on April 23 that the Central Bank received its first revenue from Strait-of-Hormuz transit tolls — the first time in modern history that a…
The second round of US-Iran talks scheduled for April 22 in Islamabad collapsed before it began. Tehran officially withdrew citing the unlifted naval blockade as proof of US bad faith; VP J.D. Vance…
CNN reports the second round of US-Iran talks will take place the morning of Wednesday April 22 in Islamabad. US delegation: VP JD Vance (lead), Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner — same team that ran the…
USS Spruance (Arleigh Burke-class destroyer) fired warning rounds into the engine room of the 294m Iranian-flagged container ship Touska after a six-hour standoff in the Gulf of Oman, disabled its…
Axios reports Trump convened a Situation Room meeting on April 18 specifically to discuss the renewed Hormuz crisis and stalled nuclear talks, with the ceasefire set to expire April 21 and no date…