Nuclear Proliferation Cascade: Post-START Arms Race
New START expired Feb 5, 2026. Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds. Iran war triggers proliferation cascade — Japan, South Korea, Germany, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Iran all reconsidering nuclear posture. Macron extends French nuclear umbrella. NPT Review Conference Apr 27 faces potential failure. China fastest arsenal growth globally.
Watching
NPT 11th Review Conference final session — May 22, 2026. Track: (1) Was a consensus final document agreed, or a chair's summary, or no document? (2) Did Iran walk out (NPT exit bill in Majlis)? (3) Was the French extended-deterrence umbrella formally raised by other states? (4) Was the post-START arms control vacuum addressed? (5) Did US/Russia issue any joint disarmament language despite expired New START? Failure scenarios are now the baseline given Guterres opening warning.
Finland's parliamentary vote on lifting the nuclear-weapons hosting ban (proposed April 23, expected before June 2026 summer break). Watch: (1) does the vote pass; (2) does it trigger active US/NATO nuclear-deployment discussions for Finnish territory; (3) does Russia make good on Gurulev's targeting threat with explicit doctrinal/military positioning.
Tracked Metrics
Signals
Timeline
Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces conducted a test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM at 11:15 MSK on May 12. Strategic Missile Forces Commander Sergey Karakayev reported the test as successful to…
South Korea's National Intelligence Service and Yonhap reported on May 10 that North Korea has revised Article 3 of its nuclear policy law to mandate an automatic and immediate nuclear strike if its…
India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) successfully test-launched the Advanced Agni ballistic missile with MIRV (Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle) capability on…
The Department of Energy's FY27 budget request (per The War Zone, Arms Control Association) includes $99.794M for a new line under Weapons Activities for Future Programs to begin a Phase 6.X program…
The 11th NPT Review Conference convened at UN HQ in New York on April 27, presided by Vietnam's Ambassador Do Hung Viet — the first RevCon since New START expired in February. UN Secretary-General…
Finland's government submitted a proposal on April 23 to amend the Nuclear Energy Act and Criminal Code, lifting existing restrictions on the import, transfer, transport, supply, storage, and…
Russian foreign-policy theorist Sergey Karaganov, in remarks broadcast to Russian audiences in April 2026 (Pravda Gerashchenko translation, April 23): "Europe must finally realize that it will be…
USSPACECOM conducted its inaugural Apollo Insight commercial integration wargame on 23 March 2026, focused on Russia's potential detonation of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in low Earth orbit. Gen.…
The 11th NPT Review Conference convenes April 27 – May 22, 2026 at UN HQ New York, presided by Vietnam's Ambassador Do Hung Viet. First RevCon since New START expired (Feb 5, 2026) — leaving the US…
Ukrainian President Zelensky publicly stated that Ukraine's decision to give up its nuclear weapons under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum was "a mistake and a deception." This is his most explicit…
Three concurrent nuclear proliferation signals: (1) Russia's SVR announces EU has begun "secretly working on its own nuclear weapons production capability," planning an autonomous nuclear command…
Army Times reports on February 2026 NATO Concept Development wargames examining Russia-NATO conflict scenarios (Baltic, Arctic, Eastern Europe). Consistent finding: Russia would not fight a…
India's Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam achieved criticality on April 6. The 500 MWe reactor, indigenously built by BHAVINI, uses mixed oxide fuel and liquid sodium coolant. It…
US/Israel strike Bushehr nuclear power plant — 4th attack on the facility. First worker killed (Iranian security guard). Rosatom CEO Likhachev: "Strike hit within the protection contour." 198 Russian…
Bloomberg reports Iran war pushing nations toward "proliferation cascade." South Korea: 75% public support for own nuclear weapons (Asan Institute). Japan: senior official says country should develop…
Macron announces France transitioning to "extended deterrence" strategy, expanding French nuclear umbrella to European countries including Germany, Belgium, Greece, Denmark, Netherlands, Poland,…
New START expires — last legally binding framework limiting US and Russian nuclear arsenals. US did not respond to Putin's proposal for voluntary compliance with central quantitative limits. No…
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight — closest ever. Cited factors: US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, weakened…