Russia-Ukraine War
Omnibus tracker for the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers all dimensions: diplomatic (peace talks, ceasefires, mediation, security guarantees), kinetic (frontline dynamics, offensives, deep strikes, drone warfare evolution, FPV-vs-FPV interception), Russian manpower (rolling reserve call-ups, hidden mobilization, Belarus pipeline, USF recruitment), Russian AI/drone deployment, Russia's war economy (sanctions, oil exports, defense industrial mobilization, federal budget), and Russia-NATO border escalation (drone debris on NATO soil, airspace probes, hybrid attacks, doctrine hardening). Ukraine's financial dimension remains separate in `ukraine-financial-crisis`.
Tracked Metrics
Signals
Timeline
The Institute for the Study of War published a landmark May 13-14 assessment: "ISW is no longer prepared to forecast when Russian forces might seize Donetsk, including the Fortress Belt, since the…
A multi-incident NATO-border airspace cluster May 7-14, all post-dating the May 9-11 ceasefire window. (1) MAY 9: A reconnaissance drone of likely military origin with Cyrillic markings discovered…
Ukraine executed a coordinated multi-direction strike on May 12-13 hitting Russia's strategic energy corridor from the Black Sea to the Caspian — a deliberate substitution for political negotiations…
Russia opened a sustained May 13-14 combined strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure: 1,567 drones plus 56 missiles deployed across the two-day window per Zelensky (via wmsitalia/89311 and…
Three parallel state-capacity signals from May 12-14. (1) RUSSIAN STATE NATIONALIZATION VIA CORRUPTION CHARGES (ISW May 13 via @qvintaaetas): "Russian courts are increasingly leveraging corruption…
Three coordinated Kremlin statements on May 9-13 redefine the post-truce negotiating posture as fundamentally maximalist. (1) PUTIN MAY 9 (BILD via PoliticsGR): the war "is coming to an end"; he is…
Asked May 12 about extending the US sanctions waiver authorizing transactions with Russian oil products (the second extension, expiring shortly), Trump declined to rule out continued extension: "we…
The Trump-brokered three-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (May 9-11, supersedes #1577) ended May 11 with both sides claiming the other violated it thousands of times and the headline 1,000-for-1,000 POW…
Per @mylordbebo (May 12), @pravdagerashchenko_en, and @geohistorianarchive Italian translation, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced "selective mobilization" of the Belarusian Armed…
A Ukrainian drone struck the office building of the Southern Russia Aeronavigatsiya branch in Rostov-on-Don early May 8 (Ukrainska Pravda, Moscow Times, Xinhua, United24, Euromaidan Press, ZeroHedge,…
Trump announced May 8 (Truth Social, AP via WSLS, Bloomberg, CBS, Al Jazeera, Ukrainska Pravda) a three-day ceasefire across May 9, 10, 11 covering Russia's Victory Day, with suspension of \"all…
Two drones identified by Russia's MoD as Ukrainian An-196 "Lyutyi" UAVs crashed in eastern Latvia overnight; one struck an oil depot in Rēzekne, igniting a fire in four empty storage tanks (police…
@blogbankir (May 6) compiles three indicators of Russia's fiscal stress: (1) Bank of Russia net-sold 6 tons of gold in recent reporting; Turkey net-sold 60 tons (cited as Turkey's lira defense during…
Two parallel capability shifts compressed into the same week. Russian fiber-optic FPV drones — immune to RF jamming because they trail a physical cable — were photographed striking targets in…
Russian MoD announced May 4 (MediaZona, Reuters via @geohistorianarchive, Pravda Gerashchenko, Kyiv Independent) that Putin "decided" to declare a two-day unilateral ceasefire on May 8-9 to mark the…
NATO opened a clustered May posture along the Russian and Belarusian borders: Estonia's "Spring Storm" (>12,000 troops, includes Ukrainian UAV operators training NATO units near the Pskov region);…
Trump and Putin held a 1.5-hour phone call on April 29 (Kremlin readout via aide Yuri Ushakov, Kyiv Independent, RTVI, Stimme der Vernunft, Pravda Gerashchenko). Per Ushakov, Putin proposed a…
The Verkhovna Rada on April 28 voted to extend Ukraine's martial law and general mobilization regime by 90 days, from May 4 to August 2, 2026 (304 deputies in favor, per Ukrainian outlets via…
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (April 27, via @internationalreporters_ru): "At some point Ukraine will sign a ceasefire agreement, at some point — hopefully — a peace treaty with Russia. Then it…
Ukrainian drones struck targets in the Urals (Yekaterinburg in Sverdlovsk Oblast, Chelyabinsk City) for the first time on April 24-25, traveling ~1,600-1,800 km from the international border (ISW,…